美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔年度经济论坛上发表一场备受瞩目的经济主题演讲。
鲍威尔发表此番言论之际，正面临多重压力：特朗普总统屡次要求他辞职，而相互矛盾的经济信号可能使美联储更难实现其双重使命——在促进充分就业的同时控制通胀。
美联储面临的核心问题——同样也是白宫、借款人和投资者等各方关注的焦点——在于其是否倾向于在9月16日至17日的下次会议上自2024年12月以来首次下调利率。
当货币政策制定者上月决定维持利率不变时，鲍威尔强调了特朗普关税政策引发的日益增长的经济不确定性，同时补充称，他认为经济仍保持稳健基础。
然而后续经济数据表明增长正在放缓。作为衡量经济活力的关键指标，就业增长大幅低于经济学家的预测值，而五月和六月薪资增幅的大幅下调修正更表明，劳动力市场的疲软程度超出此前预期。
与此同时，美联储正密切关注国内通胀率——该指标持续顽固高于央行设定的2%年度目标，且近几个月来呈缓慢上升趋势。根据美联储的职责授权，该央行需同时维持低通胀与低失业率。
e投睿美国投资分析师布雷特·肯威尔在鲍威尔演讲前通过邮件表示：“美联储正陷入两难境地——通胀上升和劳动力市场放缓形成降息压力，这两项指标均与其双重使命背道而驰。”
根据CME FedWatch基于30天联邦基金期货价格的计算，美联储在9月会议上降息的概率约为72%。
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is giving a widely anticipated speech about the economy Friday at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming economic forum.
Powell's comments come as he faces a range of pressures, including President Trump's repeated calls for his resignation and conflicting economic signals that could make it tougher for the Fed to fulfill its dual mandate of promoting full employment while keeping inflation in check.
A central question for the Fed — as well as for everyone from the White House to borrowers and investors — is whether it is inclined to push down interest rates at its next meeting, set for September 16-17, for the first time since December 2024 .
When monetary policy makers opted to hold rates steady last month , Powell highlighted the growing economic uncertainty stemming from Mr. Trump's tariffs, while adding that he believed the economy remained on solid ground.
Yet subsequent economic data has pointed to a slowdown. Job growth — a key measure of the economy's strength — significantly undershot economists' forecasts, while a large downward revision in May and June payroll gains suggested the labor market was shakier than previously thought.
At the same time, the Fed is closely watching the nation's inflation rate, which remains stubbornly above the central bank's 2% annual target and which has inched higher in recent months. Under the Fed's mandate, the central bank is tasked with keeping both inflation and unemployment low.
"The Fed is being put in a tough spot, with pressures to cut interest rates as inflation rises and the labor market decelerates — with both of those metrics moving in the opposite direction from the Fed's dual mandate," eToro U.S. investment analyst Bret Kenwell said in an email before Powell's speech.
The probability of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting stands at about 72%, according to CME FedWatch, which bases its calculations on 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices.
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